Epidemics:ferguson2008

Virtual society	Virus spread	Literature	Version
Polish virtual society epidemics model
Guinea pigs epidemics model
Virus genetic evolution epidemics model

An example of so called SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) model.

Joint probability of observed (Y), unobserved variables ($\nu,\psi$), and parameters ($\theta$) is given by:

$p(Y,\nu,\psi,\theta) = p(Y|\nu,\psi)p(\nu,\psi|\theta)p(\theta)$, where

$p(Y|\nu,\psi)=\prod_{i}^{n_{ih}}p(Y^{ih}|\nu^{ih},\psi^{ih})$,
$p(\nu,\psi|\theta)=\prod_{ih}^{n_{ih}}p(\nu^{ih},\psi^{ih}|\theta)$,