Epidemics:ferguson2008
Virtual society | Virus spread | Literature | Version |
---|---|---|---|
Polish virtual society epidemics model | |||
Guinea pigs epidemics model | |||
Virus genetic evolution epidemics model |
An example of so called SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) model.
Joint probability of observed (Y), unobserved variables (), and parameters () is given by:
,
where:
, prior level (prior distribution of parameters).
, transmission level
, observation level
Y - indicator function: (for ith, () individual of ihth household (of size ) on jth day ()), if clinical influenza was observed, otherwise. - all observations from household ihth, Y - observations from all households.
- group of individuals at ihth household with at least 1 day of clinical influenza, - remaining members of the ihth household.
- the 1st day of clinical influenza of ith individual in ihth household
- unobserved variables corresponding to the start end the end of the infectious period for ith individual of ihth household