Difference between revisions of "Epidemics"
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* transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual ''i'', <math>p_i=1-\exp^{-\lambda_i(t) \Delta T}</math>, where <math>\lambda_i</math> is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual ''i''. | * transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual ''i'', <math>p_i=1-\exp^{-\lambda_i(t) \Delta T}</math>, where <math>\lambda_i</math> is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual ''i''. | ||
| − | === Ferguson's in Thailand<ref name="ferguson2005">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, ''Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia'', Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214</ref> === | + | === Ferguson's, in Thailand<ref name="ferguson2005">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, ''Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia'', Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214</ref> === |
* households, schools, workplaces included in the model | * households, schools, workplaces included in the model | ||
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=== Ferguson's in UK<ref name="ferguson2001">FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548</ref> === | === Ferguson's in UK<ref name="ferguson2001">FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548</ref> === | ||
Revision as of 12:09, 5 November 2008
| Virtual society | Virus spread | Literature | Version 
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Polish virtual society epidemics model | |||
| Guinea pigs epidemics model | |||
| Virus genetic evolution epidemics model | |||
Pandemics history info on the Internet
Past Pandemic Timeline in Nature
H5N1 outbreaks in birds and other animals in Nature
Human cases of avian flu in Nature
Influenza report 2006 - on-line book
Review of epidemics models
Ferguson's, in France[1]
Quite large amount of data on epidemics in France from Sentinel and Centre National de Reference de la Grippe, region Sud, Laboratoire de Virology.
- workplaces not explicitly included
- transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual i,
, where 
is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual i. - transmission rate in a household
, where a - age (Adult(>=18) or Child), f(t) - relative infectiousness according to time t since infection, n - the size of the household. - transmission rates for: within household infection (A,C), within school, within community (A->A,C->C,A<->C). Hence, the overall risk of infection includes: the household risk, the within school risk, the community risk
- time step = 6h
- annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year (included in
), where y - year
Ferguson's, in UK and USA[2]
- households, schools, workplaces included in the model
- commuting data also included (the average distances traveled from hh to wp); the UK distance distribution more-less like power law, that of USA - surprisingly a bit different
- air travel data included
- time step = 6h
- transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual i,
, where is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual i.
Ferguson's, in Thailand[3]
- households, schools, workplaces included in the model
- travel data - not enormous, but some, generalized into probabilities of commuting within district
- seasonality not included (available data suggested that climate changes do not influence the infectivity rate)
Ferguson's in UK[4]
Dunham's general model - MASON[5]
Germann's, in USA[6]
Stroud's, in southern California, USA[7]
References
- ↑ CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754
- ↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452
- ↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214
- ↑ FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548
- ↑ DUNHAM J B, An Agent-Based Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Model in MASON Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2005, 9(1)3
- ↑ GERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940
- ↑ STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9
