Difference between revisions of "Epidemics"

Revision as of 15:39, 4 November 2008

Virtual society	Virus spread	Literature	Version
Polish virtual society epidemics model
Guinea pigs epidemics model
Virus genetic evolution epidemics model

workplaces not explicitly included
transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual i, $p_i=1-\exp^{-\lambda_{i,y}(t) \Delta T}$ , where $\lambda_i$ is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual i.
transmission rate in a household $= \beta^{a}_{hous} f(t)/n$ , where a - age (Adult(>=18) or Child), f(t) - relative infectiousness according to time t since infection, n - the size of the household.
transmission rates for: within household infection (A,C), within school, within community (A->A,C->C,A<->C). Hence, the overall risk of infection includes: the household risk, the within school risk, the community risk
time step = 6h
annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year (included in $\lambda_{i,y}(t)$ ), where y - year

households, schools, workplaces included in the model
commuting data also included (the average distances traveled from hh to wp); the UK distance distribution more-less like power law, that of USA - surprisingly a bit different
air travel data included
time step = 6h
transmission model: probability of the infection of the individual i, $p_i=1-\exp^{-\lambda_i(t) \Delta T}$ , where $\lambda_i$ is the instantaneous infection risk of the individual i.

households, schools, workplaces included in the model
travel data - not enormous, but some, generalized into probabilities of commuting within district
seasonality not included (available data suggested that climate changes do not influence the infectivity rate)

↑ CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754
↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452
↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214
↑ FERGUSON N M, Galvani A P, and Bush R M, Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution, Nature, 422 (2003), pp. 428-433
↑ FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548
↑ DUNHAM J B, An Agent-Based Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Model in MASON Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2005, 9(1)3
↑ GERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940
↑ STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 [http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/human_cases.html Human cases of avian flu in ''Nature'']
+[http://www.influenzareport.com/ Influenza report 2006 - on-line book]
 == Review of epidemics models ==