Difference between revisions of "Epidemics"

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Pandemics history info on the Internet:
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== Pandemics history info on the Internet ==
  
  
 
[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/past_pandemics.html Past Pandemic Timeline in ''Nature'']
 
[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/past_pandemics.html Past Pandemic Timeline in ''Nature'']
  
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[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/hn51_outbreaks.html H5N1 outbreaks in birds and other animals in ''Nature'']
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[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/human_cases.html Human cases of avian flu in ''Nature'']
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== Review of epidemics models ==
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=== Ferguson's, in France<ref name="ferguson2008">CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754</ref> ===
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Quite large amount of data on epidemics in France from Sentinel and [http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtlas/home.asp Centre National de Reference de la Grippe, region Sud, Laboratoire de Virology].
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* workplaces not explicitly included
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* transmission rate in a household <math>= \beta^{a}_{hous} f(t)/n</math>, where ''a'' - age (''A''dult(>=18) or ''C''hild), ''f(t)'' - relative infectiousness according to time ''t'' since infection, ''n'' - the size of the household.
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* transmission rates for: within household infection (A,C), within school, within community (A->A,C->C,A<->C). Hence, the overall risk of infection includes: the household risk, the within school risk, the community risk
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* time step = 6h
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* annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year
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== Ferguson's, in UK and USA<ref name="ferguson2006">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, ''Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic'', Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452</ref> ==
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== Ferguson's in Thailand<ref name="ferguson2005">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, ''Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia'', Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214</ref> ==
  
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[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/hn51_outbreaks.html H5N1 outbreaks in birds and other animals in ''Nature'']
+
== Ferguson's in ...<ref name="ferguson2003">FERGUSON N M, Galvani A P, and Bush R M, Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution, Nature, 422 (2003), pp. 428-433</ref> ==
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== Ferguson's in UK<ref name="ferguson2001">FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548</ref> ==
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== general model - MASON<ref name="dunham2005">DUNHAM J B, ''An Agent-Based Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Model'' in MASON Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2005, 9(1)3</ref> ==
  
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== in USA<ref name="germann2006">GERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</ref> ==
  
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[http://www.nature.com/avianflu/timeline/human_cases.html Human cases of avian flu in ''Nature'']
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== in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ==

Revision as of 23:01, 3 November 2008

Virtual society Virus spread Literature Version Polish.png
Polish virtual society epidemics model
Guinea pigs epidemics model
Virus genetic evolution epidemics model





Pandemics history info on the Internet

Past Pandemic Timeline in Nature

H5N1 outbreaks in birds and other animals in Nature

Human cases of avian flu in Nature


Review of epidemics models

Ferguson's, in France[1]

Quite large amount of data on epidemics in France from Sentinel and Centre National de Reference de la Grippe, region Sud, Laboratoire de Virology.

  • workplaces not explicitly included
  • transmission rate in a household = \beta^{a}_{hous} f(t)/n, where a - age (Adult(>=18) or Child), f(t) - relative infectiousness according to time t since infection, n - the size of the household.
  • transmission rates for: within household infection (A,C), within school, within community (A->A,C->C,A<->C). Hence, the overall risk of infection includes: the household risk, the within school risk, the community risk
  • time step = 6h
  • annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year

Ferguson's, in UK and USA[2]

Ferguson's in Thailand[3]

Ferguson's in ...[4]

Ferguson's in UK[5]

general model - MASON[6]

in USA[7]

in southern California, USA[8]

  1. ↑ CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754
  2. ↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452
  3. ↑ FERGUSON N M, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, and Burke D, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, Nature, 437 (2005), pp. 209-214
  4. ↑ FERGUSON N M, Galvani A P, and Bush R M, Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution, Nature, 422 (2003), pp. 428-433
  5. ↑ FERGUSON N M, Donnelly C, and Anderson R A, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, 413 (2001), pp. 542-548
  6. ↑ DUNHAM J B, An Agent-Based Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Model in MASON Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2005, 9(1)3
  7. ↑ GERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940
  8. ↑ STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9
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