https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=Epidemics
Epidemics - Revision history
2026-09-06T21:45:39Z
Revision history for this page on the wiki
MediaWiki 1.27.4
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=352&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Ferguson's, in FranceCAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), p
2008-11-19T13:32:51Z
<p>/* Ferguson's, in FranceCAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), p</p>
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<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:32, 19 November 2008</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 6h</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 6h</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year (included in <math>\lambda_{i,y}(t)</math>), where ''y'' - year</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* annual variations of influenza infections modeled via: the strength of transmission during the year and the relative contribution of children to transmission during the year (included in <math>\lambda_{i,y}(t)</math>), where ''y'' - year</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[epidemics:ferguson2008 | More details]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Ferguson's, in UK and USA<ref name="ferguson2006">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, ''Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic'', Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Ferguson's, in UK and USA<ref name="ferguson2006">FERGUSON N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, Cajka J C, Cooley P C, and Burke D S, ''Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic'', Nature, 442 (2006), pp. 448-452</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
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Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=351&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Ferguson's, in FranceCAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), p
2008-11-18T14:12:49Z
<p>/* Ferguson's, in FranceCAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), p</p>
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<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:12, 18 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l22" >Line 22:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Review of epidemics models ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Review of epidemics models ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Ferguson's, in France<ref name="ferguson2008">CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Ferguson's, in France<ref name="ferguson2008">CAUCHEMEZ S, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, Flahault A, and Ferguson N M, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data, Nature, 452 (2008), pp.750-754<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"></ref><ref name="cauchemez2004">CAUCHEMEZ S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron A J, Boelle P Y, ''A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data'', Stat. Med., 23, (2004), p3469</ins></ref> ===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Quite large amount of data on epidemics in France from Sentinel and [http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtlas/home.asp Centre National de Reference de la Grippe, region Sud, Laboratoire de Virology].  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Quite large amount of data on epidemics in France from Sentinel and [http://gamapserver.who.int/GlobalAtlas/home.asp Centre National de Reference de la Grippe, region Sud, Laboratoire de Virology].  </div></td></tr>
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Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=333&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Stroud's, in southern California, USASTROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial
2008-11-05T14:15:03Z
<p>/* Stroud's, in southern California, USASTROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial</p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* model implemented in EpiSimS platform</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">*</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== References ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== References ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><references/></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><references/></div></td></tr>
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Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=332&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T14:06:52Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
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<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:06, 5 November 2008</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', ''incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', ''incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* model implemented in the molecular dynamics SPaSM code, substituting atoms by agents</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* model implemented in the molecular dynamics SPaSM code, substituting atoms by agents</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* basic reproductive number <math>R_0</math> in the range [1.6;2.4]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* basic reproductive number <math>R_0</math> in the range [1.6;2.4] <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">- as parameter of simulations</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* initial conditions: 1-10 per 10000 arriving flight passengers randomly infected, only once for the whole simulation</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
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Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=331&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Pandemics history info on the Internet */
2008-11-05T13:56:32Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Pandemics history info on the Internet</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.influenzareport.com/ Influenza report 2006 - on-line book]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://www.influenzareport.com/ Influenza report 2006 - on-line book]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">== Important parameters ==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproductive_rate Basic reproductive number, <math>R_0</math>] -  the mean number of secondary cases a typical single infected case will cause in a population with no immunity to the disease in the absence of interventions to control the infection.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Review of epidemics models ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Review of epidemics models ==</div></td></tr>
</table>
Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=330&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T13:52:09Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;' lang='en'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:52, 5 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l60" >Line 60:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 60:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', ''incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', ''incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* model implemented in the molecular dynamics SPaSM code, substituting atoms by agents</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* model implemented in the molecular dynamics SPaSM code, substituting atoms by agents</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* basic reproductive number <math>R_0</math> in the range [1.6;2.4]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
</table>
Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=329&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T13:45:04Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;' lang='en'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:45, 5 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l53" >Line 53:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 53:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* no seasonal or environmental factors included, no virus evolution effects included</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* no seasonal or environmental factors included, no virus evolution effects included</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* basic geographic unit <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(</del>census tract<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">) </del>is a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years) or community with no residents, only a workplace of about 100 individuals; in total, about 180000 communities are included <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline"> </del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* basic geographic unit <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">corresponds to ''</ins>census tract<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">'', it </ins>is a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years) or community with no residents, only a workplace of about 100 individuals; in total, about 180000 communities are included<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">; also travel data for the members of community included (in census tracts info);  </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 12h</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 12h</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math>, where the product goes over all <math>N_{ic}</math> contacts with infectious individuals, with infection probability at ''i''th contact given by <math>p_i</math>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math>, where the product goes over all <math>N_{ic}</math> contacts with infectious individuals, with infection probability at ''i''th contact given by <math>p_i</math>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* disease history includes ''latent'', <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''</ins>incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* model implemented in the molecular dynamics SPaSM code, substituting atoms by agents</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
</table>
Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=328&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T12:40:47Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;' lang='en'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:40, 5 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l53" >Line 53:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 53:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* no seasonal or environmental factors included, no virus evolution effects included</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* no seasonal or environmental factors included, no virus evolution effects included</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">basic geographic unit (census tract) is </ins>a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years) <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">or community with no residents, only a workplace of about 100 individuals; in total, about 180000 communities are included  </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* time step = 12h</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math>, where the product goes over all <math>N_{ic}</math> contacts with infectious individuals, with infection probability at ''i''th contact given by <math>p_i</math>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math>, where the product goes over all <math>N_{ic}</math> contacts with infectious individuals, with infection probability at ''i''th contact given by <math>p_i</math>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">time step = 12h</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">disease history includes ''latent'', incubation'', and ''contagious'' periods of average durations: 1.2, 1.9, and 4.1 days, respectively.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
</table>
Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=327&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T12:25:18Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;' lang='en'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:25, 5 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l56" >Line 56:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 56:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious contact person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math> , where the product <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline"> </del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Total probability of the susceptible person to get infected, <math>P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</math>, where the product <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">goes over all <math>N_{ic}</math> contacts with infectious individuals, with infection probability at ''i''th contact given by <math>p_i</math>.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 12h</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* time step = 12h</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
</table>
Magd
https://rivers.icm.edu.pl/index.php?title=Epidemics&diff=326&oldid=prev
Magd: /* Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940 */
2008-11-05T12:22:35Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Germann's, in USAGERMANN T C, Kadau K, Longini I, and Macken C, Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103 (2006), pp.5935-5940</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<col class='diff-marker' />
<col class='diff-content' />
<tr style='vertical-align: top;' lang='en'>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan='2' style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:22, 5 November 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l55" >Line 55:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 55:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* a community of 2000 individuals: age, household size, and employment status distributions match US census data; agents divided into 5 age groups (0-4, 5-18, 9-29, 30-64, 64+ years)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* playgroups or daycare centers, schools, workplaces included; also contacts with people from neighborhood, occasional contacts in churches, supermarket, etc, included  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: contact probability, <math><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">c_i</del></math>,  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* transmission model: <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">probability of infection from a single contact, <math>p = P_{trans}\cdot c</math>, where <math>c</math> is the contact probability (dependent on the age of both contacting people), <math>P_{trans}</math> is the probability of transmission; antiviral treatment of the infectious </ins>contact <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">person or the vaccination of the given individual diminish the <math>P_{trans}</math>;</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Total </ins>probability <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">of the susceptible person to get infected</ins>, <math><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">P\;=\;1-\prod_{i}^{N_{ic}}(1-p_{i})</ins></math> , <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">where the product  </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* time step = 12h</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Stroud's, in southern California, USA<ref name="stroud2007">STROUD P, Del Valle S, Sydoriak S, Riese J and Mniszewski S (2007). ''Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza'' in a Massive Artificial Society,Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(4)9</ref> ===</div></td></tr>
</table>
Magd