Difference between revisions of "Epidemics:ferguson2008"

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(New page: {{Menu epidemics}} <br/><br/> <br/><br/> An example of so called SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) model. Joint probability of observed (''Y''), unobserved variables (<math>\nu,...)
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Revision as of 15:17, 19 November 2008

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An example of so called SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) model.

Joint probability of observed (Y), unobserved variables (\nu,\psi), and parameters (\theta) is given by:

p(Y,\nu,\psi,\theta) = p(Y|\nu,\psi)p(\nu,\psi|\theta)p(\theta), where

p(Y|\nu,\psi)=\prod_{i}^{n_{ih}}p(Y^{ih}|\nu^{ih},\psi^{ih}),
p(\nu,\psi|\theta)=\prod_{ih}^{n_{ih}}p(\nu^{ih},\psi^{ih}|\theta),